Black Elephants and Black Swans of Nuclear Safety
(2011). Black Elephants and Black Swans of Nuclear Safety. Ethics, Policy & Environment: Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 273-278.
www.tandfonline.com
Black Elephant의 정의
(Fukushima 사고를 예견했던 연구들을 언급한 후) it seems that the potential of a large earthquake and the consequent risks to nuclear power plants were known but not addressed properly.
This leads us to highlight another concept that we believe is important in order to understand and to prevent hazards: the 'black elephant', which is similar to a black swan, but like the 'elephant in the room' is visible but largely ignored.
We define a black elephant as: (i) a high-impact event, that (ii) lies beyond the realm of regular expectation, but (iii) is ignored despite existing evidence.
Black Elephant가 생기는 이유
Every situation where the creator of risks does not have to bear their full cost, creates a moral hazard that may cause black elephants.
...
Another cause of black elephants is related to organizational factors and division of labour. ... too close a relationshiop between the regulatory authority in chare of safety and the energy utilities.
...
A thrid area of concern is related to the involvement of stakeholders and the general public regarding the acceptability of risks.
Black Elephant가 생기기 않게 하려면...
"inherenlty safe design" & "safe fail"
가장 통렬한 문장이라면, 가능성이 있음에도 애써 무시했던 그 사고-Black elephant-가 발생하고 나면, 그건 Black swan이었다고 치부한다는 것!
"Another characteristic of a black elephant is that after the fact, it may be taken for a black swan (it may even be in the interest of some to portray it as such)."
우리나라 원전업계와 그 추종론자들이 커다란 코끼리를 못 본 척하는 거 아닌가 하는 생각이 든다. 왜 수출형과 내수형 원전 설계와 성능기준을 다르게 만드는 거냐고... 그래 놓고 세계 최고의 기술이니, 자기들을 못 믿겠냐느니,...
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